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Next Xbox (720): A Speculation |
In November 2001, Microsoft launched the original Xbox console. Four years later, in November 2005, they started the “Next-Generation” by launching the Xbox 360. If this pattern is anything to go by, which recent storms of rumors indicate it is, we can expect the “Next Xbox” console to roll out in Fall 2010. Here is some speculation as to what this new machine, Xbox 720 or otherwise, might feature:
Marketplace:
Xbox Live Marketplace has been a runaway success for Microsoft. Unfortunately, it might have been too successful for its own good. Like a child growing too fast for his clothes, Marketplace took in far too much content for its infrastructure. If the combined Spring/Fall update later this year provides a massive overhaul to the service, it could lay the foundation for what Microsoft intends to do with the Next Xbox.
Microsoft started their digital distribution service with a very wimpy (and pricy) Xbox Live Arcade offering on the original Xbox. On the 360, they expanded the Arcade, which became a huge success. Next, larger game content, like Elder Scrolls IV: Shivering Isles, started hitting the service. Now, full original Xbox games are available on the service, along with feature-length films and TV shows.
The next logical step would be to bring full retail games to Marketplace. Microsoft could even implement a “play as you download” feature, much like they do with movies, to nullify download times. With the games coming straight from the hard drive (or solid state drive), loading times for these graphical monsters could be close to instant. Not only would this digital distribution system be more convenient to gamers, but it would drastically reduce prices for developers and publishers. Games could potentially cost only $30 for a new copy, effectively cutting out the “middle-man” retail store. Losing a disc based medium could also reduce the price of the console, making it a more Wii-like, consumer-friendly machine, while still retaining the hardcore power it needs.
Controller:
As seen with the iPhone, the Wii-mote, and even Microsoft’s own Surface computers, a natural, movement-based input system is a recipe for success. The Xbox 360 controller probably won’t be going anywhere for the next console, but it may have a companion. In 2006, Microsoft was granted a patent for a new type of motion sensing technology that uses several small cameras to gauge movement. Now, if these cameras came in a small, easy to setup fashion, like the Wii-mote’s sensor bar, Microsoft could have something revolutionary for the Next Xbox. If this was the case, the cameras could sense every gesture the player makes, taking gaming to a whole new level.
For example, imagine that we are watching the Next Xbox unveiling at E3: 2010. Phil Spencer, head of Microsoft Game Studios, takes the floor. Using the new 3D sensing technology, he gives a tech demo by playing a game of chess. Every movement with his hands registers with the cameras, allowing the on-screen hands to mimic ever articulate movement. He continues this game as though he were playing on an invisible board in front of him. Chess is a simple example, but let’s take that same concept and transfer it over to Age of Empires: IV. Now Spencer is wielding entire armies at his fingertips, making swift and natural motions to bring American soldiers to victory at Iwo Jima.
Microsoft has the technology, and the Wii has proven the concept, so expect some type of motion input, even if the Next Xbox is only equipped with accelerometers.
Games:
Microsoft and Sony both suffered by launching new consoles without any killer apps. The original Xbox had Halo to bring in the sales, but the 360 was stuck with the rushed Perfect Dark Zero and the PC-port of Call of Duty 2. If one thing is clear, Microsoft is going to need some great games to launch the Next Xbox. Here are a few contenders:
Elder Scrolls: Online – According to the Rumor Mole in the January issue of Official Xbox Magazine, this will be a launch title for the new system. The Elder Scrolls series already has the necessary components to make a killer MMORPG. It has a vast, open world filled with a ridiculously detailed history and a powerful character creation tool. In April 2007, ZeniMax Online was founded with MMO veteran Matt Firor at the helm, and the studio’s close ties with Bethesda would indicate that ESO is their current project.
Halo: Chronicles – If one single bullet point can be taken away from the life of the Xbox machines, it is this: Halo sells. For those of you out of the loop, Halo: Chronicles is the mysterious interactive property being developed by Peter Jackson’s gaming company, Wingnut Interactive. According to the Lord of the Rings director, the title is a new, episodic way of story-telling. The episodic aspect seems to make Chronicles a perfect poster child for the Next Xbox Live Marketplace. With absolutely nothing of the “game” revealed yet, it, or one of its chapters, being a launch title in 2010 is a safe bet.
Gears of War 3 – With the Unreal Engine 4 set to debut with the next console generation, what better game to accompany it than Gears? GoW3 also fits right in line with the series’ release record: Gears of War released in November 2006, and Gears 2 is set for November 2008. Two years later, and Gears 3 would be set as a launch title for the Next Xbox. The 3D spatial technology would fit in really well with this game, too. Imagine ducking down to slide Marcus Fenix into cover, then raising your foot in the real world to curb stomp a Locust in the game!
Other games to keep an eye out for: Doom 4*, Age of Empires: IV, Prey 2*, GTA: Las Venturas, Unreal Tournament IV, and the next Bungie project.
*announced
Hardware:
This is Microsoft’s weakness, whether it’s the Dirty Disc Errors from the original Xbox or the Red Ring of Death from the 360s. To keep early adopters worry-free, Microsoft needs to have all of their hardware bases covered, even if it means wrapping a hundred Next Xboxes in blankets and letting them run for several days in the desert. Other hardware features to note:
Graphics – Microsoft will probably future proof their Next Xbox graphics by allowing for resolutions greater than the newest resolutions, like that of OLED.
Memory – In order to store all of its downloadable games and movies, this will be one of the Next Xbox’s most vital features. External hard drives or solid state drives absolutely must be supported. If next-gen games run around 20-50 gigs a piece, look for the Next Xbox memory space to top several Terabytes.
Xbox 360:
Microsoft learned a tough lesson about backwards compatibility (BC) with the 360: don’t try it; do it. The problem was the switch in graphics card manufacturers. The original Xbox graphics were powered by Nvidia, fierce rival of ATI, the company that manufactured the Xbox 360 card. The switch caused the backwards compatibility of original Xbox games to run on emulation, a tedious and time-consuming process that made the original Xbox library BC in sporadic doses. Assuming Microsoft doesn’t change hardware manufacturers again, expect to see Xbox 360 games fully BC with the Next Xbox to ensure easy transition to the new console.
Another piece of evidence to support full BC is the “Loose Talk” from the June issue of GameInformer, which reports that Next Xbox owners will be able to transfer their Xbox 360 Gamertag and Achievements to the new console. With the Xbox Live system as it stands, no Gamertag can be in two places at once (and still be able to access Live). It would be a hard sell for Microsoft to tell gamers that they would need to continuously move their Gamertag back and forth between consoles if they want to enjoy Xbox 360 games. Also, many gamers will inevitably trade in their 360’s for the newer model. That upgrading process is part of what makes a new system viable. Not including BC would keep gamers from letting go of their 360s and using the trade-in cash they earn to buy the Next Xbox.
Wish-List:
- Digital Rights – If there’s one thing on this wish-list more vital than all the others, it is this. Xbox Live Arcade was a complete mess when it came to DRM. In many cases, gamers would lose all access to some of their games if they traded in their consoles. If digital distribution is the way of the future, then this problem needs to be a non-issue at launch.
- Default Wireless Internet – We don’t need a $99 add-on that never drops in price. There needs to be internal support for N and Y wireless bandwidths from the get-go.
- Persistent open world – As much as it would be the PS3’s Home, the hilarious possible gestures your avatar could do with 3D spatial technology are too funny.
- Full Dolby Digital 7.1 support – It’d be fantastic to hear the Covenant coming at me from the sides in Halo: Chronicles.
- Full mouse and keyboard for 3D space – Typing on an air-keyboard would be insane, but cumbersome. However, pointing to an item you want to select would have to be a must if this tech is really in the works.
- Bluetooth 3.0 – The next step in Bluetooth should be available by this time, and the Next Xbox needs to be able to talk to the rest of my electronics.
- Upgradable graphics card – With the future of displays uncertain, a future-proofing feature like this is a must; especially if 3D displays become the next generation.
- Voice Commands – Rather than traverse through the crowded Marketplace jungle, life would be much easier with the ability to just press a button on the headset and say, “Search. Movies. The Dark Knight.” Or, “Where’s Dan?” then, zap, I’m teleported to the game Dan is playing.
- LCD Controllers – Now that there are key chains with LCD screens for $30 in the check-out aisles of Wal-Mart, LCD screens in controllers shouldn’t be too hard. It could replace the guide and provide your Friends list or even developer commentary for games.
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Overall, if only half of these features are planned for the Xbox 720, then it will still be a kickass machine to own. Even so, it is still about two years until we’ll see any announcements regarding the Next Xbox. However, you will be able to notice the signs if Microsoft starts making moves closer and closer to full retail game digital distribution. One thing is certain: the future of Xbox looks bright. And you never know! Duke Nukem Forever may even be released before the Next Next Xbox comes out!
-Joseph Rush
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